Photo by Ethan Bloch, Flickr

Our neighbours in the south are already finding themselves caught up in the paralyzing cogwheels of their electoral cycle. While the economy (as much in the United States as in the rest of the world) is spinning its wheels, the American political class have their eyes on the next presidential electoral appointment. If you live in the United States and the situation disquiets you, don’t count on your Congress to make life easier for you anytime soon.

For the next 13 months, political life in the biggest economy in the world will be completely monopolized by presidential electoral wrestling. The election is just over a year away on Nov. 6, 2012. But already the energy of the two principal political formations are all concentrated on the race for the White House. In the United States, the electoral cycle is definitely a long river, but not a tranquil one.

What’s worrying for Canada is the more the economic crisis in America is prolonged, the more the Canadian economy will have all the difficulties of the world to attain a level of robust growth. Economic data doesn’t lie, we’re spinning our wheels, and brushing against a return into recession.

In fact, history teaches us that if the economic downturn doesn’t improve, Barack Obama’s chances of re-election could be strongly compromised. No president has been re-elected while the rate of unemployment is low. The latest unemployment statistics in the United States indicate a rate of 9.1%, compared to 6.7% in November 2008.

The gap President Obama must fill is so big that only an economic miracle will be able to reverse the steam being lost. And in the current economic and political circumstances, it is allowable for us to doubt that the plan for employment presented by the president will be sufficient.

But first, it’ll be necessary that the plan be put into place, which is far from being established. The Republicans and Democrats in Congress don’t seem predisposed to arrive at an agreement.

The Republican presidential primaries are making life even more difficult for President Obama. A series of debates between the potential candidates does nothing in helping the chances of an economic agreement with the White House. If an agreement exists, my bet is that it will be so diluted that it won’t be worth the paper it’s written on. Not to mention pressure from the Tea Party movement making it difficult to arrive at a compromise acceptable by the two parties.

The signals indicate that President Obama’s party is in danger, accumulate for the president. A recent special election to fill a seat in the House of Representatives in a New York city district saw the election of a Republican candidate – a first since the 1920’s. Nothing joyful for the Democrats.

The qualities of an outstanding speaker which have contributed to propel Barack Obama to the White House will be put to hard tests in the course of the next few months.

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Translation Nigel Barbour