As they say, it’s not over ‘til it’s over. Our Albertan neighbours clearly demonstrated it last week. The recent Alberta general elections’ results, which saw the Progressive Conservative Party win a 12th consecutive mandate, are plain on this aspect.
Barely two weeks ago, the Wildrose Party seemed to be heading towards victory and naysayers went into battle mode, convincing several voters to backtrack. The Conservatives won this election by the seat of their pants.
PC leader Alison Redford. Photos by Kempton
Don’t be fooled. I know the hammer came down hard on pollsters the day following the elections. They, as many self-appointed pundits had great pleasure in repeatedly pointing out, had predicted a major landslide in the Albertan political picture. Yet, Conservative leader Alison Redford’s troops came out of the electoral battle with a decisive victory. Predictions seriously failed. But does that mean that those pollsters have lost all credibility? Not at all.
In fact, polls within the Conservative Party were showing barely a week before the elections that it was perhaps living out its last days of power. According to a Progressive Conservative Party pollster, a daily survey done for the party started showing encouraging signs the last three days of the campaign. In fact, the Saturday before the fatidic date thirty per cent of voters said they were now reconsidering their final choice – a number large enough to make anything possible. Alison Redford’s troops, in the end, benefited from these last minute deliberations.
The movement coalesced so rapidly that pollsters were not able to get a feel for it from voters the last time they tested public opinion during the campaign. They surely felt a tightening of the electoral stakes, but nothing to forecast such a definitive victory for the Conservatives. And so, the dynasty survived.
Clearly, a good number of voters suddenly felt colder towards Danielle Smith’s Wildrose Party. In the final days of the campaign many voices rose and expressed themselves through social networks. These voices stated that some people who traditionally voted for the Liberals were ready to abandon their party and vote Conservative in order to block the Wildrose Party. Evidently, such intentions became reality.
Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith. Dave Cournoyer, Flickr
Sure enough, the Liberal Party collapsed in favour of the Conservative Party. This becomes clearly apparent when we examine the results in two major centres: Calgary and Edmonton. The Wildrose Party had to gain a foothold in both these cities if it hoped to form a government. Which, and everybody knows that, would have been a stunning accomplishment in the black gold province. Another clue that suggests the credibility of the hypothesis of a movement against the Wildrose Party is the voting rate, a rate that jumped up 16 per cent from the 2008 elections. A substantial jump.
But, the Wildrose Party will have to quickly realize that these last minutes choices made by voters didn’t materialize out of thin air. The Wildrose’s campaign has shown the disquieting side of some of its candidates. The effect was, and for good reason, to profoundly disturb the province’s electorate.
The campaign has also clearly demonstrated that during an election campaign, every single day counts. You can’t stop working until the voting stations close.
Translation Monique Kroeger
