Because of the political circumstances in Quebec, I thought it would be a good idea to do a column on the subject. This will likely be my last comment on Quebec politics for some time unless, of course, there is a referendum on Quebec sovereignty.
Don’t worry, though, the odds of a referendum during the PQ government’s first term are as probable as NASA’s Rover discovering life on Mars. My prediction is that we aren’t going to see Quebec, and by extension the rest of Canada, immersed in a referendum campaign anytime soon.
Still, facts are facts. Since Quebec voters gave the Parti Québécois such a small minority, even as they were facing a highly unpopular government, it is difficult to believe that the sovereigntist force could win a referendum.
True to their usual wisdom, voters opted for change in continuity, as it were. We should not mistake the desire for renewal for permission to break away from the relative constitutional peace established in Quebec in the late 1990s. However, there is no doubt that a change in the tone of federal-provincial relations should be expected. It would be surprising if a Parti Québécois government did not go ahead with an eagerness to create those famous winning conditions that would pave the road to a more decisive victory the next time voters are forced to the polls.
The other aspect of this election that caught my attention is that the forecasted collapse of the Quebec Liberal Party has not materialized. On the contrary, with a single percentage point difference in votes received, Jean Charest’s party did very well after all and will form a strong official opposition with members of tremendous experience in parliamentary and public affairs.
Finally, several people were, again, quick to point the finger at pollsters. The same thing happened after the elections in Alberta, earlier this year. But beware. Before throwing the first stone at the pollsters, we must analyze what they predicted in the days preceding the election.
At the finish line, the results were not far from the latest polls. The pollsters had in fact carefully noted the volatility of the electorate and the high percentage of undecided voters. It was even said that it reflected the fact that many voters siding with the PLQ were reluctant to commit to pollsters. It seems that this is what happened. Both the Parti Québécois and the CAQ got the expected results, previously announced by two pollsters. But it wasn’t so for the Liberal Party, and this most likely explains its relative success in obtaining four to five per cent more than what the pollsters had predicted.
Another factor that undoubtedly contributed to the PLQ’s success comes from a more extensive experience in managing voting day. In politics, this day is of great strategic importance. The ability to identify supporters and ensure their vote requires significant resources and a well-oiled team. No doubt the PLQ had both. The Coalition Avenir Québec party, born less than a year ago, has obviously experienced challenges in this regard.
But the big winner of the Quebec election was democracy, with nearly 75 per cent of voters claiming their right to vote.
Translation Monique Kroeger
