The three by-elections that took place across the country on November 26, including one in Victoria, show two things: Prime Minister Harper’s troops are losing some battles, and yet he can still have a good night’s sleep. I know this might seem contradictory, so let me explain.
Joan Crockatt, newly elected MP for Calgary Centre. Photo by Gordon McDowell, Flickr
In the three relevant ridings, the Conservatives declined in terms of percentage of votes compared to the 2011 federal election. Surprisingly, it was in the traditionally secure terrain of Alberta that they suffered the most. In Calgary Centre – Joe Clark’s former riding, no less – the Conservative candidate saw her share of the vote shrink by 21 per cent, a significant loss. In the Victoria by-election, Conservative support dropped by 9 per cent. There is nothing worrisome about this for the Conservatives since that riding has never proved a strong one for them.
It is by turning to Ontario and the results of the third Nov. 26 by-election that we see why Stephen Harper can look ahead with a certain dose of optimism. Conservative success in the riding of Durham, which has a history of alternating between Liberal and Conservative, enables him to walk with serene confidence. His candidate managed to corral over 50 per cent of the votes despite slightly lower voter turnout than in the last federal election. That says a lot, because governing parties tend to be punished during by-elections.
Since Ontario is the Promised Land for federal parties hoping to form a government, the message is that – at least for now – all’s well. For a government deemed unpopular in public opinion, the results in Durham must have made some Conservatives smirk.
Add to this another observation that works in favour of the Conservatives: I am talking about the overt rift among voters branded as progressives. These are voters traditionally known as being centre or centre-left on the political spectrum. This really came into play in Calgary Centre, where the significant drop in Conservative support should have signalled their downfall. However, while both the Liberal and Green candidates were able to benefit from the NDP’s significant drop in votes in that riding, the progressive vote was still split. In fact, the strong showing by the Green Party prevented a Liberal victory, allowing the Conservative candidate to be elected with just 37 per cent of the total vote while the Liberals took 33 per cent and the Greens 26 per cent.
The mini electoral evening delivered the worst news for the NDP. Even if they made minor gains in Ontario, their losses in Victoria and Calgary Centre were significant. Once again, the Green Party proved a major factor, its growth in Victoria almost costing the NDP its seat there.
These by-elections show in some small way the success of the Conservatives’ strategy. This strategy was to attack the opposition mercilessly: keep on inundating the media with negative messages aimed at their main adversary, in this case NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, in the hope that people would believe what the Conservatives were saying or would at least begin to doubt the Conservatives’ foes.
These unfounded bombardments are standard issue in the Conservatives’ strategic arsenal, so much so that they sometimes bring about some pretty amusing situations.
For example, the Calgary Centre Conservative Party candidate said that her victory showed just how strong her party was and how it was gaining ground. The party may be strong but it would be an error to think that the results show that it is on an upward curve.
None of this matters much. The preferred Conservative strategy remains the repetition of messages in the hope that they become reality in the minds of voters. To date, it has served the Prime Minister’s team well.
Translation Monique Kroeger
