last week, the government of Stephen Harper celebrated the second year of its majority mandate. I still remember his comment as he greeted his partisans after the Conservative victory in 2011.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper – Photo courtesy of the British High Commission in Canada, Flickr
He said his new government would be “strong, stable, national and majority.”
His majority has allowed him to make major changes that he probably wouldn’t have been able to implement in a minority government situation. Just look at his agenda in matters of justice and crime fighting or omnibus budgets that go far beyond the country’s basic financial management to see the major changes he has made. Oh, and there’s the fisheries’ laws, and environmental protection changes, too.
But the awaited revolution around social issues never materialized, and this doesn’t surprise me. Despite a large number of skeptics convinced that the Conservative Party’s leader is hiding in some cave somewhere in the nation’s capital with a secret agenda, if we observe Stephen Harper’s path, there is little room for doubt.
The government, then, is at a crossroads. It has two years behind it and two years ahead. Typically, during that period, governments try to keep away from bad news. We should surmise that any policies likely to be controversial have already been implemented or will be very soon. A surgical approach should follow, that is to say policies that will consolidate the party’s base and offer opposition parties some very difficult choices. To put it plainly, the government will be doing all it can to win another majority.
In the background, there is Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau. His arrival as a leader is hard to ignore. Pollsters didn’t waste any time to announce – numbers in hand – that he could become the next Prime Minister. Let’s take a moment for a big collective breath, now.
OK…
Two years is an eternity in politics. Also, even though the conservatives very rapidly aired ads aimed to cast doubt over Justin Trudeau in voters’ minds, it’s barely the beginning. Depending on how you view these kinds of tactics, the best or the worst is yet to come.
The real test for Trudeau will be in about a year’s time, when he’ll be called to offer the electorate the outline of a political program. From then on, he will have to state his position on a great number of issues. It will be the start of in-depth debates –
we’ll see then, how the new leader really fares.
One thing’s for sure – he won’t have an easy time against a toughened Prime Minister. It’s been said, lately, that Stephen Harper is losing traction, yet he seems to always have an ace up his sleeve.
Next year will give a taste of what’s in store for the following year – and the election that will come with it.
Translation Monique Kroeger
