The next political year will be a tough one for our neighbors south of the border. Yet, despite this less than joyful prospect, there is still hope, for Barack Obama.
Even if a recent poll indicates that three-quarters of Americans feel that their country is headed down the wrong path-a hardly encouraging reality for the incumbent president-he nevertheless continues to have the upper hand against Republican hopefuls in voters’ intentions, at least according to the findings of a survey done for the Wall Street Journal and NBC.
True, American politics have the reputation for being fickle enough to make it difficult to infer any sort of outcome, especially a whole year ahead.
The issue is not to gain a majority within a pool of voters. What matters is to reap as many votes as possible from the states richest in what is known as the Electors, the members of the Electoral College. The majority must be obtained within this College.
The good news for President Obama is that his problems seem lesser than the Republicans’. Although the Republicans have yet to announce who will represent them in the 2012 presidential race, the dynamics running the electoral campaign are auguring peril with the party.
Even though the campaign doesn’t officially start until next January with the state of Iowa kicking off the primaries, the Republicans’ main players are already crisscrossing the United States and organizing meetings.
The road ahead is a long one since we won’t know, before next August, who will be at the Republican helm in the electoral race.
For the moment, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney seems to have the Republicans’ electorate’s favor. However, the internal competition is fierce. For some members of the Tea Party, Mitt Romney is too centrist.
This group, an ultra right winged one, now plays an omnipresent role in the affairs of the Republican Party and makes life difficult for anyone seeking the Republican candidacy.
Quite simply put, it’s hard to see how the Republicans can hope to realize their White House dreams while basing their campaign on that group’s political agenda.
Barack Obama’s victory is subject to the Tea Party’s performance and, first and foremost, his skills to reach out and engage the young voters of America, once again. This is truly the key to his electoral success. Surveys show that his greatest allies stem from this core group. However, this same group has shown, traditionally, the least interest in voting duties.
Barack Obama and his team now have a full year to try and motivate them, a year to see if he will follow in the footsteps of Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter.
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Translation Monique Kroeger
