J.P.J Trudeau. Photo by abdallahh, Flickr
The Liberal Party of Canada recently announced that the name of its next leader will be announced on April 14. It is nearly two years since the departure of their last leader, Michael Ignatieff. They have finally set the destination of the long road to a permanent leadership.
Since 2006, when the Liberals lost power to the troops of Stephen Harper, the party, better accustomed to power than to opposition benches, has been on a long journey across the desert. And as any political party would, it aspires to form a government. In the present circumstances, it is difficult to see how it can get there, any time soon.
Aside from this minor detail – not having a permanent leader for a long time – the party does not seem to be able to get any traction in the arena of public policy. For a party that was, for a long- time, at the forefront of important reforms, this situation is grievous to say the least.
And the same fault could be ascribed to the rumors about the next potential leader. It seems that what primarily drives the party members is to find someone who will win rather than someone who would take the time to rebuild the party, allowing it to find its place in the current Canadian political landscape.
The idea to find this “savior” who will be able to quickly bring the Liberals back to power has its risks for the “chosen one” in April 2013. If you follow even a bit of the political news, you will quickly realize that the search for this miracle worker is zooming in on one specific person: Justin Pierre James Trudeau.
Indeed, since his arrival to the House of Commons in 2008 his name has at the top of the list as a favourite. His name, as we know it, recalls a period of electoral success that many partisans and nostalgic fans of his father’s reign deeply wish to relive again, sooner rather than later of course.
His decision will speak volumes about the future of the party. If it’s no, the message will be clear that he doesn’t see how the Liberals can be revived for several years. We can bet o this for at least two or three elections to come. In this scenario, he would not only be relegated to the opposition benches for a while, but in addition, he would see his senatorial team greatly diminished. I mention this as important because the upper chamber of Parliament has always been a base of politically strategic operational when the Liberals don’t form the government.
Everything rests of course on the premise that Justin Trydeau is the only one able to restore his party’s ability to seriously face the conservative forces. To do this, the Liberal’s must absolutely regain its status in Quebec while consolidating its base in Ontario. In the first case, nothing is taken for granted for Trudeau, whose name leaves no one indifferent in a province now headed by a sovereignist party.
His challenge, should he become leader, will be to dislodge the New Democratic Party, which exploded onto the Quebec scene last year and is now headed by an MP from Quebec: Thomas Mulcair.
Ultimately, this battle will be won by a party leader who can articulate a vision that can convince voters that he is indeed a Prime Minister in waiting. To achieve this, it seems to me that Justin Trudeau has quite the challenge ahead of him. To this day, his statements about the public policies that motivate him have been, to say the least, far from inspirational.
Having said that, my prediction is that he will run- we should hear about it some time in October.
Translation Monique Kroeger
