Barack Obama triumphs again. Illustration by Dan Klimke, Flickr

In a previous column, I wrote that Obama sorely needed the votes of young Americans if he were to win the election. With sixty per cent of their votes favoring him, it happened. In fact, and we know this now, Obama got the highest score with pretty well everybody, except with men, whites and the elderly.

The good news for the Democrats didn’t stop at the presidency – they managed to keep control of the Senate. They even gained a few seats. However, partying never lasts very long in Uncle Sam’s country. Nope, American politicians never stop campaigning. Sparring never ceases, and this perpetual political circus interferes with the country’s governance. No decision is taken before it is weighed against voting factors.

The proof is in that various camps are already set up for the next election – the midterms, set for November 2014. American voters will be participating, then, in choosing a third of the Senate seats as well as the entire House of Representatives. These elections will show whether the Republicans have learned their lesson after their latest presidential defeat.

For many Democrat senators, the fact that their party is occupying the White House can bring its own set of headaches. They are eyeing many of the Senate seats in states where Mitt Romney has rallied a number of members of the Electoral College.

The President’s performance until 2014 will greatly influence the results of the next elections. It remains to be seen which president will be operating over the next two years: Obama the spendthrift, presiding over the nation’s growth, or Obama the fiscal conservative who will be looking after the country’s finances and putting order back to the American budget, a budget nearing catastrophe.

The answer to this question will bear significantly on the degree of motivation of the Republican Party’s base. It’s true that before the campaign officially begins there will be elections, a bit like our own nomination contests. These have been particularly painful for the Republicans since their party has fallen under the heavy influence of the Tea Party. This movement’s apostles aren’t afraid of imposing their favourites in order to boost their political agenda.

This dynamic hasn’t always served the Republican Party well, as shown by the results of the last election. Two favourite Tea Party flag-bearers bit the dust as a result of their fierce stance on abortion. In both cases, the fact that voters in Missouri and Indiana rejected the ideology put forth by those candidates should provoke some deep soul-searching among the Republicans. However, I would be surprised if the Tea Party members softened their stance.

Yet, on the Republican horizon, there is still hope to be found in the profile of voters’ demographics – some vote during the midterm elections, others during Presidential elections. According to a profile of these voters, young Americans, mainly favouring Obama, have represented about eleven per cent of midterm voters since 1990. Nineteen per cent of them voted on November 6th. This eight per cent difference could benefit the Republicans.

To boot, Democrat senators in six states will be on shaky ground in 2014, following Mitt Romney‘s gains in those states during the last presidential election. All of this to say, President Obama will have to decide to either leave behind a personal legacy or that of his party.

His agenda during the upcoming 24 months will reveal his state of mind.

Translation Monique Kroeger