It’s the beginning of a new year. Unlike last year – which was a rather quiet one in politics – 2013 will be a turning point.

Starting in May right here in British Columbia, voters will be electing the next provincial government. The race should be tight, and if the past repeats itself, it will be even tighter than polls suggest. In the upcoming weeks, party leaders will be setting up and beginning their respective pre-electoral campaigns. Interestingly, aside from Green Party leader Jane Sterk, the other three major party leaders will be confronting one another for the first time in this election.

On the federal scene, too, the year will be one of transition. At the end of 2013, the Conservative government will be at its term’s halfway mark, which means that towards the end of the year it will have to start thinking about re-election. True, governments today are in perpetual election mode, but there comes a time when they must step up the rhythm. That time is usually at mid-term.

We should see a change in the tempo and tenor of governmental affairs. The least popular measures will be pushed back and the focus will turn towards policies that appeal to voters.

Overall, operations ran smoothly for Harper in 2012. However, the Idle No More campaign is already giving 2013 its tone and the grassroots movement seems to be growing. The Conservative troops will have to keep a sharp eye on it, lest it becomes a severe headache for the party.

Even though Theresa Spence, the Cree leader who initiated the movement, has herself been in the middle of controversies regarding the leadership of her band, the strength of the movement as a whole cannot be easily dismissed. Governments who ignore what happens around them do so at their own peril. This situation will probably be the most important challenge for Harper as the new year begins. It might, in fact, turn out to be the most difficult dossier he has had to deal with since he gained power. However, to date, Harper has proven he knows just when and how to act in order to diffuse tensions. It would be surprising if the government hierarchy isn’t already concocting a plan to smooth over this crisis and come out of it unscathed.

All this will be done with an eye on the Conservative electoral base, which a recent Ipsos-Reid poll tells us is still solidly behind the prime minister. The poll confirms what most people already know: you either like Harper or you don’t. There’s not much room for subtlety here. But for the Conservatives, the core voters who form the very heart of the party are large enough for the government to justify policies and actions designed to satisfy and maintain that core.

Another major event on the federal scene will be the election of the Liberal Party’s new leader next April. Discussions about the leadership race, which have been discreet to date, should start gaining momentum with the first debate among the candidates slated for Jan. 20 right here in Vancouver. From there on the games will begin and we’ll be looking at a slew of advertisements from the Conservatives attempting to brand the new Liberal leader.

One thing’s for certain: Conservative strategists will be listening with great attention to what is being said during the Liberal leadership campaign in order to glean a few juicy quotes to be pulled out of the bag when the time comes. The tactic has served them well in the past.

Translation Monique Kroeger